郑明贵, 吴萍, 尤碧莹. 2022: 中国铁矿资源经济安全评价与预警. 地质通报, 41(5): 836-845. DOI: 10.12097/j.issn.1671-2552.2022.05.009
    引用本文: 郑明贵, 吴萍, 尤碧莹. 2022: 中国铁矿资源经济安全评价与预警. 地质通报, 41(5): 836-845. DOI: 10.12097/j.issn.1671-2552.2022.05.009
    ZHENG Minggui, WU Ping, YOU Biying. 2022: Economic security evaluation and early warning of iron ore resources in China. Geological Bulletin of China, 41(5): 836-845. DOI: 10.12097/j.issn.1671-2552.2022.05.009
    Citation: ZHENG Minggui, WU Ping, YOU Biying. 2022: Economic security evaluation and early warning of iron ore resources in China. Geological Bulletin of China, 41(5): 836-845. DOI: 10.12097/j.issn.1671-2552.2022.05.009

    中国铁矿资源经济安全评价与预警

    Economic security evaluation and early warning of iron ore resources in China

    • 摘要: 铁矿是中国重要的战略矿产资源,其经济安全关乎国民经济社会发展全局。为深入研究中国铁矿资源经济安全,从资源、进口市场、可持续发展3个层面出发,构建了中国铁矿资源经济安全评价指标体系,运用改进的TOPSIS法、障碍度模型和GM(1, 1)-BP组合模型实现对2001—2018年中国铁矿资源经济安全的评价、主要障碍因子分析及2020—2025年铁矿资源经济安全预警。结果表明:①2001—2018年,中国铁矿资源经济安全水平总体呈先降后升趋势,安全预警等级经历了蓝色预警—红色预警—橙色预警的变化过程; ②一级指标中,资源安全贴近度呈波动下降趋势,进口市场安全贴近度先升后降,可持续发展安全贴近度处于不断波动下降,但2016年之后又急剧上升趋势; ③影响铁矿资源经济安全的主要障碍因子为储采比、探明储量增量、勘查投入增长率、资源回收利用率和资源相对丰度; ④2020—2025年中国铁矿资源经济安全贴近度呈下降趋势,安全预警等级由橙色预警上升至红色预警。

       

      Abstract: Iron ore is an important strategic mineral resource, and its economic security is related to the overall situation of national economic and social development.In order to further study the economic security of iron ore resources in China, the evaluation index system of economic security of iron ore resources in China is constructed from three aspects of resources, import market and sustainable development.The improved TOPSIS method, obstacle degree model and GM(1, 1)-BP combination model are respectively used to evaluate the economic security of iron ore resources in China from 2001 to 2018, analyze the main obstacle factors and give early warning of the economic security of iron ore resources in 2020-2025.The results show that: ①From 2001 to 2018, the economic security level of iron ore resources in China showed a general trend of first decreasing and then increasing, and the security warning level experienced a change from blue warning to red warning and to orange warning; ②Among the first level indicators, the resource security closeness showed a fluctuating downward trend, the import market security closeness first increased and then decreased, and the sustainable development security closeness was in a fluctuating downward trend, but increased sharply after 2016;③The main obstacles affecting the economic security of iron ore resources are the reserve production ratio, the increment of proven reserves, the growth rate of exploration investment, the utilization rate of resource recovery and the relative abundance of resources; ④From 2020 to 2025, the economic security closeness of iron ore resources in China will show a downward trend, and the security warning level will rise from orange warning to red warning.

       

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