Risk quantitative evaluation for Xujia Village loess landslide, Xi’an, Shaanxi Province

Quantitative evaluation of the hazard may play an important role in risk evaluation of a landslide. In order to study the quantitative risk assessment technique for a single landslide, the authors chose Xujia Village landslide as a case study, conducted field investigation, laboratory test, and stability calculation, used previous achievements and reliability methods to quantitatively calculate the probability of Xujia Village landslide under the natural and strong rainfall condition. Using the quantitative analysis method, the authors investigated and analyzed all kinds of hazard- bearing bodies, values, and vulnerability in the Xujia Village landslide intensity by way of estimation under the specific landslide intensity of vulnerability. The overall risk of the potential economic loss and death was estimated by using international single landslide risk calculation formula which led to a quantitative expression. Under the general condition, the annual probability of economic lose is ￥15.4million, the annual probability of death is 1.3 persons; under the strong rainfall condition, the instability probability of Xujia Village landslide is multiplied, the property risk and life risk are also multiplied, the annual probability of economic lose is ￥95.8million, the annual probability of death is 8.3 persons.