The active faults interaction, stress triggering and differential responses on the southeastern margin of the Tibetan plateau

As a large open complex system, the lithosphere and the crust are constituted by a lot of plates, blocks and loops of layers. Like the neural net in the crust, the faults are also part of this system. There is interaction between the active faults caused by rupture of earthquake fault, because this rupture might produce stress disturbance which would trigger other fault ruptures not only in nearby areas but also in distant areas. Different active faults have different structural regimes, active patterns and strain stages, so they have different responses to the earthquake. The trigger and different combined effects have important influence on seismicity. One manifestation is that, after a large regional earthquake, the maximum probability of occurrence of the largest secondary earthquake appears in the area which has enhanced seismic activity. In other words, the seismic risk happens at first in the area where there exists distant aftershock (induced foreshock or response shock). This phenomenon is an effective factor for predicting the location of future earthquakes. The statistics of earthquakes from 1950 to 2013 in local areas shows that the forecast success rate W=1-(lean rate + false rate)=80%. The authors finally predict the area with seismic risks.