Trade-off synergies and drivers of ecosystem services in Xinjiang from 1990 to 2020

Xinjiang is the most typical representative of global temperate arid zone ecosystems, and carrying out spatial and temporal changes in ecosystem services and synergistic analyses of trade-offs in Xinjiang can help the sustainable development of the region.In this paper, based on satellite remote sensing data, the InVEST model was used to calculate soil retention (SR), habitat quality (HQ), water yield (WY), grain production (FP) and carbon stock (CS) in Xinjiang from 1990 to 2020, and to analyse the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of each ecosystem service during different periods from the perspective of natural resource zoning. Meanwhile, the trade-off synergistic relationships among the five key ecosystem services were analysed using the Spearman correlation coefficient in R language and GeoDa software, and their drivers were analysed using the optimal geodetector. The results showed that; (1) the average annual WY, CS, SR, HQ and FP in Xinjiang from 1990 to 2020 were 575.9 × 108m3, 9.373 × 109m3, 17.538 × 109t, 0.47, 1119.64 × 104t, respectively. the high-value areas of several ecosystem services were mainly located in Altay Mountains, Tacheng Basin, Yili Basin, Junggar Basin and grassland areas of Tarim Plain.(2) CS-SR, HQ-SR, WY-HQ and WY-SR mainly showed strong synergistic relationships, with more than 30% of the zones showing synergistic relationships, mainly in the Taklamakan Desert desert area, the desert area of Southern Xinjiang, the southern part of the sandy area of the Turpan Basin, the northern part of the high-covered steppe area of the Tarim Plain, the high-covered steppe and dryland areas in the Yili Basin, the high-covered steppe and dryland areas of the Junggar Basin, and the high-covered steppe and dryland areas of the Junggar Basin. FP was less correlated with the other four ecosystem services.(3) The explanatory power of the trade-off-synergistic relationship between precipitation and NDVI on ecosystem services was greater under the effect of a single factor.This paper helps to clarify the law of ecosystem services in Xinjiang and formulate differentiated ecological compensation policies based on the spatial differentiation characteristics of ecological processes in natural resource zoning.