刘贺. 0: 北京王四营地区地面沉降演化规律及潜力预测模型评价. 地质通报. DOI: 10.12097/gbc.2023.10.008
    引用本文: 刘贺. 0: 北京王四营地区地面沉降演化规律及潜力预测模型评价. 地质通报. DOI: 10.12097/gbc.2023.10.008
    He LIU. 0: Evaluation of Land Subsidence Evolution Law and Potential Prediction Modelin Wangsiying area of Beijing. Geological Bulletin of China. DOI: 10.12097/gbc.2023.10.008
    Citation: He LIU. 0: Evaluation of Land Subsidence Evolution Law and Potential Prediction Modelin Wangsiying area of Beijing. Geological Bulletin of China. DOI: 10.12097/gbc.2023.10.008

    北京王四营地区地面沉降演化规律及潜力预测模型评价

    Evaluation of Land Subsidence Evolution Law and Potential Prediction Modelin Wangsiying area of Beijing

    • 摘要: 为研究地面沉降演化规律及其沉降潜力,以北京王四营地区为例,结合多源精细化监测数据“由点到面”对该地区地面沉降特征进行分析和对比研究评价。同时引入成长曲线沉降模型,通过MATLAB构建了多源数据融合的地面沉降潜力评价模型。“点”上以王四营地面沉降站为依托,对分层沉降情况进行机理分析和预测;“面”上以区域水准测量和区域地下水位动态监测数据为依托,对区域沉降演化特征沉降潜力进行评价。研究发现:(1)地面沉降主要发生在粘性土层,地面沉降发育情况与粘性土含量成正比,王四营地区浅部地层中沉降量和沉降比例越来越小,而深部地层则随着时间沉降量和沉降比例越来越大,是该区地层中主要的沉降“优势”层位;在一个水文年内,地面沉降所表现出的季节性形变特征与地下水位动态变化趋势有较高相关性,丰水期地面沉降速率减缓,枯水期地面沉降速率明显增大;地面沉降和地下水位数据拟合后发现二者具有一定的相关性,相关性随着水位降幅的增大,相关性也随之增大,二者成正相关。(2)基岩标—分层标静力水准测量系统与人工水准测量系统对同一监测点数据互校后的误差值非常接近,符合正态分布规律,验证了我们的多源监测手段是科学准确的。(3)预测未来地面沉降垂向上,随着时间的增长,各地层地面沉降开始逐渐衰减,但地层整体残余沉降量仍有100mm左右的发展空间,中深部地层是未来地面沉降发生的主要“优势层位”,沉降潜力较大;横向上,未来地面沉降趋势与现阶段一致,但速率整体呈减缓的趋势。

       

      Abstract: In order to research the evolution law of land subsidence and its subsidence potential,take the Wangsiying area in Beijing as an example,the characteristics of land subsidence in wangsiying area "from point to surface" are analyzed and compared with multi-source fine monitoring data. At the same time, the growth curve settlement model is introduced, and the land subsidence potential evaluation model based on multi-source data fusion is constructed by MATLAB.Based on wangsiying ground settlement station, the mechanism analysis and prediction of layered settlement are carried out on "point"; Based on the regional leveling and dynamic monitoring data of regional groundwater level, the regional settlement evolution characteristics and settlement potential are evaluated.Research findings:(1) The land subsidence mainly occurs in the cohesive soil layer, and the development of land subsidence is directly proportional to the content of cohesive soil. The settlement amount and the settlement ratio of the shallow strata in wangsiying area are getting smaller and smaller, while the settlement amount and the settlement ratio of the deep strata are getting larger and larger with time, which is the main "dominant" layer of settlement in the strata of this area;In a hydrological year, the seasonal deformation characteristics of land subsidence have a high correlation with the dynamic change trend of groundwater level. The land subsidence rate slows down in the wet season and increases significantly in the dry season; After fitting the data of land subsidence and groundwater level, it is found that there is a certain correlation between them. The correlation increases with the increase of water level decline, and the correlation is positive; The development of land subsidence in Wangsiying area is relatively high,and the differential subsidence in the whole area is also very obvious.(2) The error values of the static leveling system of bedrock level and layered level and the manual leveling system for the data of the same monitoring point are very close to each other and conform to the normal distribution law, which verifies that our multi-source monitoring method is scientific and accurate.(3) It is predicted that the future land subsidence will be vertical. With the increase of time, the land subsidence of each layer will gradually decline, but the overall residual subsidence of the stratum still has a development space of about 100mm. The middle and deep strata are the main "dominant Strata" for the future land subsidence, and the settlement potential is large; Horizontally, the trend of land subsidence in the future is consistent with that in the current stage, but the overall rate is slowing down.

       

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