Development characteristics and potential risks of Dankanongba glacial lake in Bomi, Tibet
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摘要:
冰湖溃决是青藏高原的典型山地灾害之一，严重威胁川藏交通廊道的安全。开展沿线地区的冰湖灾害调查和溃决风险评估，并制定针对性的防控对策十分必要。选取西藏波密的丹卡弄巴冰湖为研究对象，通过遥感解译、野外调查、工程地质类比、数值模拟等方法，查明了冰湖、冰川积雪区、形成流通区、堆积区等分区流域的发育特征，提出了丹卡弄巴具有发生冰湖溃决和形成泥石流的条件，揭示了高位冰崩、冰川跃动、雪崩等是引发冰湖溃决的主要诱因类型，计算了终碛垄发生全溃的洪水流量曲线，模拟了泥石流在下游沟道的演进过程。结果显示，冰湖全溃条件下形成的泥石流将对堆积区28户85人造成淤埋的直接危害，还将挤占帕隆藏布河，造成主河偏流，对右岸沿河的川藏交通廊道及其附属设施等造成路基水毁的间接危害。对川藏交通廊道沿线冰湖发育区开展灾害调查和风险评估进行初步探索，可供西藏国土空间风险管控、水利水电开发、冰湖景区选址等冰湖灾害评价提供借鉴。
Abstract:Glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) is one of the serious mountain disasters in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, which seriously threatens the safety of the Sichuan-Tibet arterial traffic which is under construction recently.Therefore, it is necessary to carry out professional investigation and assessment of these potential hazard glacial lakes above the railway, and formulate targeted prevention and control countermeasures.The Dankanongba glacial lake in Bomi was selected as the research object, through remote sensing interpretation, field investigation, engineering geological analogy and numerical simulation, to investigate the background characteristics of glacial lake, glacier and snow covered zones, formation and transportation zones and accumulation zones.It is proposed that Dankarongba has the conditions for glacial lake breach and debris flow formation.It is also revealed that high-place glacier collapse, glacier surge and snow avalanche are the main inducement types of GLOF.Based on the calculation of flood discharge of the end moraine breach, the evolution process of debris flow in the downstream channel is also simulated.The results of numerical calculation and analysis show that the debris flow formed under the condition of GLOF will cause direct damage to 85 people of 28 households in the accumulation area.It will also cause diversion of the main stream and indirect damage to the Sichuan-Tibet arterial traffic and their ancillary facilities by the right bank of the river.A preliminary exploration on how to carry out disaster investigation and potential assessment in the glacial lake areas above the Sichuan-Tibet arterial traffic is carried out, which can be used for reference in the natural resource management, water conservancy and hydropower development, glacial lake scenic spot location and other glacial lake disaster assessment in Tibet.
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Keywords:
- Glacial lake outburst flood /
- glacier hazard /
- debris flow /
- Tibet Plateau
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致谢: Landsat TM、Landsat ETM+、Landsat OLI遥感数据来源于中国科学院计算机网络信息中心地理空间数据云平台(http://www.gscloud.cn)，气象数据来源于中国气象数据网(http://data.cma.cn)，在此一并表示感谢。
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图 2 丹卡弄巴冰湖冰舌后退速率与藏东南地区气候变化和已溃冰湖对比
Figure 2. Comparison of glacier tongue receding rate of Dankanongba glacial lake with climate change and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in southeast Tibet
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图 3 丹卡弄巴冰湖纵横剖面地形地貌特征(上图为纵剖面，下图为横剖面)
AnZgd—冈底斯岩群片麻岩；J1R—侏罗纪黑云二长花岗岩；N1X—新近纪黑云二长花岗岩；Qgl—第四纪冰碛物
Figure 3. Topographic and geomorphic features of Dankanongba glacial lake valley
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图 4 丹卡弄巴冰湖一次性全溃的溃决洪水流量过程曲线
Figure 4. GLOF process of one-time total collapse of Dankanongba glacial lake
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图 5 丹卡弄巴形成流通区与藏东南地区已溃冰湖泥石流形成条件对比
Figure 5. Comparison of the formation conditions of debris flow in Dankanongba and the breached glacial lakes in southeast Tibet
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图 6 丹卡弄巴冰湖溃决泥石流演进模拟结果(模拟时间4 h)
Figure 6. Simulation results of the evolution of the GLOF debris flow in Dankanongba (Simulation time: 4 hours)
表 1 丹卡弄巴冰湖库容计算方法及结果
Table 1 Calculation methods and results of Dankanongba glacial lake storage capacity
冰湖基本参数 冰湖库容计算方法 文献[17] 几何计算 长度L/m 宽度W/m 水深H/m 侧碛垄坡度i/° 计算参数 库容/104 m3 计算参数 库容/104 m3 850 282 38 20 L、W 485 L、W、H、i 568 
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表 2 模型输入参数
Table 2 Model input parameters
输入参数 数值 输入参数 数值 坝顶宽/m 20 初始溃口深度/m 2 溃口边坡/° 45 初始溃口底宽/m 1 曼宁系数 0.045 临界剪切应力τc/Pa 30 坝体下游坡比 0.3249 含量占90%与30%的颗粒粒径之比d90/d30 40 冰湖湖面面积/m2 A(Zs)-h 平均粒径d50/m 0.01 初始溃口顶宽/m 3 孔隙比e 0.493 注：A(Zs)-h表示冰湖水深与面积的动态相关关系
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