High resolution flood records in the Yangtze subaqueous delta during the past century and control mechanism
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摘要:
夏季洪涝灾害对长江流域社会经济造成了严重的影响，急需开展多时空尺度流域洪水发生规律和控制机理的研究，但因洪水器测数据年限短和缺少有效的古洪水沉积记录研究方法而难以实现。选取长江水下三角洲YEC1701柱状样顶部100 cm进行高分辨率XRF岩心连续扫描（XRFCS），粒度、有机碳、N元素、δ13C和210Pb定年分析，并与流域洪水器测或历史记录等进行对比研究，以期建立高效的古洪水沉积记录代用指标。结果表明，长江水下三角洲沉积物中Zr/Rb峰值通常对应粒度粗组分高值和较高的C/N值、偏负的δ13C值，所在层位的沉积年龄与流域洪水事件发生年份有很好的对应关系。由此判断，Zr/Rb值可作为判别长江古洪水沉积的重要代用指标。长江流域于1930—2017年间共发生22次洪水事件，利用XRFCS获得的10 mm和2 mm间隔Zr/Rb值可分别识别出其中的11次和18次，识别率为50%和80%。由此推荐XRFCS样品测试间隔要小于年沉积速率一半以内，以提高古洪水事件的识别率。多源洪水和降雨数据分析表明，长江洪水年际至千年尺度发生规律主要受厄尔尼诺-南方涛动和东亚夏季风、南亚夏季风活动的共同影响。但早期长江洪水资料分辨率较低，长江水下三角洲有较连续的洪水沉积记录，运用XRFCS毫米级分辨率的Zr/Rb值可重建全新世高分辨率的长江古洪水发生历史，更精细地分析气候变化对洪水发生规律的控制机理，为预测全球变化背景下长江洪水演变趋势提供依据。
Abstract:Summer flood hazards have a strong influence on the social economy of the Yangtze River Basin, so it is in dire need of investigating multiple spatiotemporal variations in floods and control mechanisms, but this is handled by short time extent of instrumental flood data and lack of effective research methods for palaeoflood deposition records.A sediment core (YEC1701)collected from the Yangtze subaqueous delta was studied in detail with its top 100 cm through using high-resolution XRF core scanner (XRFCS), and measurements of grain size, organic carbon and nitrogen, stable carbon isotope (δ13C), and210Pb compositions.The above study results were compared with the observing instruments or documental flood data to establish an effective proxy for paleo-flood depositions by comparison with instrumental or documental flood data.The results show that the peak value of Zr/Rb in the subaqueous delta sediments of the Yangtze River usually corresponds to the high value of coarse grain composition, the high value of C/N, and the negative value of δ13C.The sedimentary age of the strata in the delta corresponds well to the year of flood events in the basin.Therefore, the Zr/Rb ratio can be used as an important proxy index for the identification of palaeo-flood sediments in the Yangtze River.Totally, 22 flood events occurred in the period 1930-2017 in the Yangtze River basin, 11 and 18 of which were identified by the XRFCS Zr/Rb data in terms of 10 mm and 2 mm measurement intervals with effective recognition rates of 50% and 80% respectively.It is therefore recommended to perform XRFCS measurement with a smaller interval than half of sedimentation rates for better recognition rates of flood events.Multiple source data of river floods and precipitations were analyzed to show that river floods in Yangtze River basin are majorly influenced by ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation), EASM (East Asian summer monsoon) and SASM (South Asian summer monsoon) over different time scales from multiple years to millennium.However, the time resolution for earlier flood records is very low, and it can be greatly improved by employing XRFCS mm-scaled Zr/Rb ratio of continuous flood depositions in the Yangtze subaqueous delta.This will also improve our understanding of controlling mechanisms of flood events and then better prediction of flood variation in response to global climate change.
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Keywords:
- Yangtze /
- flood deposition /
- Zr/Rb ratio /
- ENSO /
- East Asian summer monsoon /
- South Asian summer monsoon
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致谢: 感谢同济大学赵金鹏、王晓慧、苏建锋同学对采样及室内实验工作的帮助，感谢中国极地研究中心毕磊助理研究员对本文图件制作的指导。
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图 1 长江流域主要水系(a)和长江口及周边海域表层沉积物分布特征(b，据参考文献[28]修改)
(其他文献中用于古洪水研究的5个短柱样位置(A[29]、Cj0702[9]、S5-2[20]、DH3-2、DH3-3[11])；a图中红色虚线表示南亚夏季风(SASM)和东亚夏季风(EASM)主要影响区域的分界线(据参考文献[30]修改))
Figure 1. Major tributaries of the Yangtze River system (a)and grain-size distribution pattern of surface sediments in the Yangtze Estuary and adjacent seas (b)
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图 2 YEC1701柱状样沉积物岩性、粒度特征、敏感组分与Zr/Rb值的垂向变化
Figure 2. Downcore variations of the lithology, grain size parameters, sensitive grain populations, and Zr/Rb ratio in core YEC1701
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图 3 柱状样沉积物粒级-标准偏差曲线对比(其他柱样位置和数据来源详见图 1)
a—单粒径测量通道(0.135 φ)；b—双粒径测量通道(0.27 φ)
Figure 3. Grain size-standard deviation curves of sediment cores in the Yangtze Delta with different statistical intervals
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图 4 YEC1701柱状样有机元素和碳同位素组成变化
Figure 4. Variations of organic elements and stable carbon isotope (δ13C)in core YEC1701
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图 5 YEC1701柱状样210Pb(a)和137Cs(b)深度剖面特征(a中斜线框标示顶部混合层；b中灰色框标示137Cs蓄积峰范围)
Figure 5. 210Pb (a)and 137Cs (b)concentration profiles and accumulation rate calculated from core YEC1701
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图 8 1930—2017年YEC1701柱样沉积物Zr/Rb距平值与气候变化、降雨量及长江年径流量对比
(SASM指数(a，据参考文献[65])、EASM指数(b、c分别据参考文献[68]和[69])、ENSO指数(d，https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei)、长江中下游流域梅雨带降水量(e，据参考文献[70])及长江年径流量(f，1930—2005年数据据参考文献[71]；2006—2017年数据据参考文献[72])；蓝色阴影区域表示上游和全流域洪水多发期，橘色阴影区域表示中下游洪水多发期)
Figure 8. Comparison of Zr/Rb anomaly valueswith climate change, the precipitation records and annual water discharge of the Changjiang river
表 1 长江流域历史洪水信息
Table 1 Historical floods of Yangtze River
年份 洪峰流量/(m3·s-1) 水文站 区域 参考文献 2016 61300 汉口 中下游 [40] 2012 71200 三峡入库 上游 [41] 2010 70000 宜昌 上中游 [42] 2004 61100 宜昌 上游 [43] 2002 70300 汉口 中下游 [44] 1999 84500 大通 中下游 [4] 1998 81700 大通 全流域 [4] 1996 75200 大通 中游 [4] 1995 74500 大通 中下游 [4] 1991 66700 汉口 下游 [4] 1983 65000 汉口 中游及汉江流域 [4] 1981 85700 寸滩 上游 [4] 1980 60100 汉江 中下游 [4] 1969 62400 汉口 中下游 [4] 1954 92600 大通 全流域 [4] 1949 - - 中下游 [4] 1948 57000 宜昌 上游 [45] 1945 73800 寸滩 上游 [4] 1936 62000 宜昌 上游 [45] 1935 56900 宜昌 中游 [46] 1934 - - 上游 [4] 1931 65000 宜昌 全流域 [45] 
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