基于多元回归的黄土滑坡滑动距离预测模型探讨——以甘肃天水地区为例

    Research on gliding distance estimation of loess landslide based on multiple regression: A case study of Tianshui region, Gansu Province

    • 摘要: 滑坡滑动距离的预测是实现大比例尺滑坡风险评估的关键瓶颈之一。为定量分析滑坡地形高差、滑坡体积、坡体长宽比、滑坡平面曲率、斜坡坡度、植被覆盖等因素对黄土滑坡滑动距离的影响,以天水地区多年滑坡数据为例,应用因子相关分析法对滑动距离影响因子进行了综合分析,基于舒德格尔公式,采用多元回归模型对降雨、地震诱发滑坡滑动距离估测方程进行了优化。结果表明,滑坡前后缘高差、滑坡体积、坡体长宽比和斜坡坡度可作为天水地区滑坡滑动距离预测模型的输入因子,其对滑坡滑动距离的影响程度可用偏回归系数定量描述。滑动距离预测模型优化后比舒德格尔公式增加了坡体长宽比和斜坡坡度2个指标,提高了模型在天水地区应用的准确度。

       

      Abstract: The prediction of the gliding distance of landslide is one of the key problems in the risk assessment of large slip landslide.To quantitatively analyze the effects of landslide topography height difference, landslide volume, landslide length-width ratio, landslide plane curvature, slope and vegetation cover on the runout distance of loess landslide, the authors chose long-term landslide data in the Tianshui region as an example to analyze the significance of the factors affecting the gliding distance by the factor correlation analysis and revised the gliding distance induced by rainfall and earthquake estimation equation based on Schudger formula and multiple regression in this paper.The results show that elevation difference, landslide volume, landslide length-width ratio and slope can be used as the input of landslide gliding distance prediction model in Tianshui region, and the degree of influence of each factor on the gliding distance of landslide can be quantitatively described by partial regression coefficient.After the optimization of the gliding distance prediction model in this paper, two indexes of landslide length-width ratio and slope are increased by the Schudger formula, which improves the accuracy of the model applied in the Tianshui region.

       

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