青藏高原东南缘活动断层相互作用、应力触发与差别响应

    The active faults interaction, stress triggering and differential responses on the southeastern margin of the Tibetan plateau

    • 摘要: 岩石圈、地壳由众多板块、地块及层圈组合而成,是开放性复杂巨系统,活断层在地壳中犹如神经网络也是复杂的开放体系。因此活断层之间存在复杂的相互作用,例如地震断层破裂产生应力扰动,可能触发其他断层破裂,不仅在近处,也会在远处发生。不同的活断层构造产状、活动方式及应变阶段不同,对同一次触发响应不同。触发与差别响应二者的叠加效应在地震活动性上有重要表现。表现之一是区域大震后,余震区外地震活动显著增强处发生继发性大震的概率最大,也即率先出现“远余震、诱发前震、响应震”的地方地震危险性增大,对预测未来地震位置有效。对本区1950—2013年地震统计表明,预测成功率W=1-漏报率-虚报率=80%。同时,对当前地震危险区作了预测。

       

      Abstract: As a large open complex system, the lithosphere and the crust are constituted by a lot of plates, blocks and loops of layers. Like the neural net in the crust, the faults are also part of this system. There is interaction between the active faults caused by rupture of earthquake fault, because this rupture might produce stress disturbance which would trigger other fault ruptures not only in nearby areas but also in distant areas. Different active faults have different structural regimes, active patterns and strain stages, so they have different responses to the earthquake. The trigger and different combined effects have important influence on seismicity. One manifestation is that, after a large regional earthquake, the maximum probability of occurrence of the largest secondary earthquake appears in the area which has enhanced seismic activity. In other words, the seismic risk happens at first in the area where there exists distant aftershock (induced foreshock or response shock). This phenomenon is an effective factor for predicting the location of future earthquakes. The statistics of earthquakes from 1950 to 2013 in local areas shows that the forecast success rate W=1-(lean rate + false rate)=80%. The authors finally predict the area with seismic risks.

       

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