摘要:
虽然对“地震能否预报”一直存在争论，但众多大地震的震例研究表明，前兆异常会或多或少地出现在地震孕育过程的不同阶段。国内外针对活动断裂的行为方式、大地震复发规律、活断层分段与大地震活动、大地震复发的概率预测和地震孕育过程与机理等，都提出了不同的理论模型，促进了地震预报的发展。中国的地震预报工作现状面临地质构造与地震地质工作基础仍明显不足、中长期地震预报工作程度亟需全面提高、中短期预报衔接不够和防大震意识还相对薄弱等诸多问题。基于这一现状与快速城镇化的国情，需在坚持地震预报研究的前提下，全面做好新构造、活动构造与地震地质方面的调查研究工作，夯实中长期地震预报的基础，并加强中短期预报的衔接，坚定防大震意识。同时切实加强防震减灾工作，有效提高强震活动区带上的建筑物与重大工程的抗震能力，并增强全社会的防震减灾意识，从而为地震预报研究提供持续发展的有利环境。
Abstract:
The problem as to "whether earthquakes can be forecast or not" has become a matter of intense debate both in China and abroad; nevertheless, many empirical and physical earthquake precursor phenomena have been discovered based on the analysis of a large number of strong earthquake examples, and the emergence of the precursors more or less exists in different phases of the seismogenic process. In regard to the important theoretical problems related to earthquake prediction, researchers of different disciplines have proposed many different theoretical models, such as the behavior of active faulting, the law of earthquake recurrence, active fault segmentation and large earthquake activity, the probability of earthquake recurrence prediction, the seismogenic process and the mechanism. These processes have also effectively promoted the development of earthquake prediction research. However, the situation of earthquake prediction work is not optimistic in China, and there are still many problems which require further improvement，such as obvious deficiencies of the basis of geological structure and seismic geology, the insufficiency of survey and study extent both in intermediate-term prediction and in long-term earthquake, the lack of cohesion between intermediate-term prediction and short-term earthquake prediction, and the relative weakness of the awareness of preventing large earthquakes. Based on this situation and the conditions of speeding up the urbanization process in China, the authors hold that at present the most realistic approach to mitigating earthquake disasters is the strengthening of the survey and study of geological structure and seismic geology on the premise of persisting in earthquake prediction research. At the same time, the work of preventing and mitigating earthquake disasters should be strengthened at several levels, the seismic resistance capabilities of major projects and buildings along the strong earthquake and active tectonic zones or areas should be improved, and the whole society's consciousness of preventing and mitigating earthquake disasters should be heightened so as to create a favorable environment for the sustainable development of earthquake prediction research work.
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