基于多元统计的甘肃永靖黑方台滑坡强度预测模型
Research on the multivariate-statistics-based prediction model of landslide intensity in Heifangtai, Gansu province
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摘要: 预测滑坡强度是滑坡风险分析与控制的基础和关键。以黑方台为研究区，在野外调查的基础上，针对研究区35处滑坡几何参数的数理统计，系统地分析了滑距与滑坡几何特征参数的相关关系，并按照黄土滑坡、黄土-基岩滑坡分别建立了滑坡空间预测的一元回归和多元回归统计模型。在统计模型中，分别以原始边坡坡度、塌落角、滑体宽度等因素为自变量，以滑坡延伸角为因变量，采用单因素和多因素拟合的方法，实现滑坡强度的简便预测。Abstract: The prediction of landslide intensity is the foundation and the key of landslide risk analysis and control. Field survey was carried out in Heifangtai. Then mathematical statistic analysis of geometrical parameters for 35 landslides was conducted to systematically analyze the correlation between sliding distance and landslide geometric parameters. Also, both single and multiple regression statistical models for landslide spatial predictions were established on the basis of the loess landslide and the loess-bedrock landslide. In the statistical model, by taking the original slope gradient, the slump angle and the width of landslide as independent variables and the reach angle as the induced variable, landslide intensity prediction is easily achieved with the help of both single factor and multiple factors fitting methods.
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