陕西省宝鸡市陈仓区吴家沟滑坡风险评价

Risk assessment of Wujiagou landslide in Chencang District, Baoji City, Shaanxi Province, China

摘要: 吴家沟滑坡是2008年汶川Ms 8.0级大地震触发的黄土塬边的一个中型滑坡。在野外调查、室内分析测试和滑坡稳定性计算的基础上，参照前人的研究成果，分2种情况对该滑坡进行了地质灾害风险评估，为防灾减灾提供决策依据。评估结果表明，在只考虑强降雨对滑坡影响的情况下，吴家沟滑坡个人风险介于7×10-4~4.375×10-5之间，位于严格详细审查区；在考虑强降雨+地震对滑坡影响的情况下，吴家沟滑坡个人风险介于1.32×10-3~8.325×10-5之间，位于不可接受区和严格详细审查区，人员社会风险位于不可接受区。

Abstract: Wujiagou landslide is a medium-scale loess landslide triggered by Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake. Based on field investigation, in-door analysis and stability research, referring to previous achievements, landslide risk assessment for Wujiagou landslide has been accomplished under two different conditions in this paper. The result shows that individual risk of landslide is from 7×10-4 to 4.375×10-5 when considering only rainfall, which accord with the range of detailed investigation; when taking both rainfall and earthquake into consideration, the individual risk is from 1.32×10-3 to 8.325×10-5 which belong to the range of acceptable and detailed investigation, while the social risk is unacceptable.