滑坡灾害风险评价的关键理论与技术方法

    Key theory and method of landslide hazard risk assessments

    • 摘要: 滑坡灾害风险评估主要包括滑坡敏感性分析、危险性评价和风险评估3个不同层次的内容。但是,滑坡地质灾害本身的复杂性和滑坡强度的确定、滑坡发生的时空概率估算、承灾体的易损性时空概率分析等难点问题的存在,无疑阻碍了滑坡风险定量评估的推广和应用。在系统分析国内外滑坡灾害风险评估研究成果的基础上,对滑坡灾害风险评价的技术体系进行了总结,提出了不同层次滑坡灾害的研究内容和相应的评价方法;分析了实现滑坡风险有效评价涉及到的难点问题,并结合降雨和地震诱发的滑坡灾害危险性评价国内外的实践,提出了中国未来滑坡灾害风险评价研究的主要内容和技术方法。

       

      Abstract: Landslide hazard risk assessments mainly include landslide vulnerability analysis, danger assessment and risk assessment. However, the presence of such difficult problems as the complexity of landslide hazards themselves and determination of the landslide intensity, estimate of the tempo-spatial probability of occurrence of landslides and analysis of the tempo-spatial probability of vulnerability of bearers undoubtedly hinder the popularization and application of quantitative risk assessments of landslides. On the basis of a systematic analysis of the results of the landslide hazard risk assessment and research at home and abroad, the authors sum up the technical system of landslide hazard risk assessments and propose the research content and assessment methods of landslide hazards of different levels. Additionally, the authors analyze the difficult issues concerning effective assessments of landslide risk and present the main content and methods of risk assessments and research of landslide hazards of China in the future.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回