近60年间巴丹吉林沙漠气温和降水变化及其对湖泊的影响

    The temperature and precipitation change and its impact on lakes in Badain Jaran Desert over the last 60 years

    • 摘要: 以巴丹吉林沙漠周围的4个国家气象站1960-2017年的长序列和腹地自建的10个气象站2016-2018年的短序列气象数据为支撑, 运用一元线性回归模型、Mann-Kendall检验等方法, 系统分析沙漠周边及腹地气温和降水量的时空变化特征; 结合项目组及前人对湖泊动态的研究成果, 分析其变化特征, 初步探讨了巴丹吉林沙漠湖泊变化与气候要素的响应关系。研究表明: 巴丹吉林沙漠周边年均气温均呈上升趋势, 且由南向北升温速率增大, 其中阿拉善右旗以0.74℃/10a的速率显著上升; 降水量变化趋势不显著; 总体而言, 近50a来沙漠东南缘气候呈暖湿化、西北缘气候呈暖干化趋势。巴丹吉林沙漠周边年降水量、气温均在20世纪70-80年代出现突变, 降水量突变不明显, 气温突变显著, 气候自此向暖干化趋势发展; 沙漠周边与沙漠区月际气候特征基本一致, 均具有水热同期, 夏季高温多雨, 冬季寒冷干燥的特点, 但沙漠区雨季较沙漠边缘区短, 雨期较边缘区提前。沙漠区湖泊多年来呈不同程度萎缩趋势, 湖泊群加速萎缩受当地气候暖干化突变控制; 湖泊年度水位、水量峰值与降水量峰值不一致, 表明降水量变化不是湖泊变化的主控因素。

       

      Abstract: Based on the long series data of four national meteorological stations during 1960-2017 in the periphery Badain Jaran desert and the short series data of 10 meteorological stations during 2016-2018 in the hinterland of Badain Jaran desert, the unitary linear regression model and Mann-Kendall test were used to systematically analyze the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of temperature and precipitation in the periphery and hinterland of Badain Jaran Desert.Combined with the research results of the project team and predecessors on lake dynamics, the change characteristics are analyzed, and the response relationship between lake changes and climate factors is preliminarily discussed in Badain Jaran Desert.The results showed that the average annual temperature shows a rising trend, and the heating rate increased from south to north, among which the Alxa Right Banner increased significantly at a rate of 0.74℃/10a.The variation trend of precipitation is not significant in the periphery of Badain Jaran Desert; in generalthe, the climate in the southeast edge of the desert has been warm and humid, while that in the northwest edge has been warm and dry in the past 50 years.The annual precipitation and temperature showed sudden changes in the 1970s and 1980s.The sudden changes in precipitation were not obvious, but the sudden changes in air temperature were significant, since then, the climate has become warmer and drier in the periphery Badain Jaran Desert; the characteristics of the monthly climate are basically the same, both of which have the characteristics of simultaneous water and heat, high temperature and rainy in summer, and cold and dry in winter in the periphery and hinterland of Badain Jaran Desert.However, the rainy season is shorter and earlier in the hinterland of Badain Jaran Desert than that in the periphery of Badain Jaran Desert.The lakes have been shrinking in different degrees for many years in the desert area, and the accelerated shrinking of lakes is controlled by the sudden change of local climate warming and drying; the annual water level, water volume peak value of the lake and precipitation peak value are inconsistent, indicating that the precipitation change is not the main control factor of the lake change.

       

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