泥石流对砌体结构建筑物的定量化风险评价-以汉源县田杯子沟为例

    Quantitative Risk Assessment of Mudslides on Masonry Structures: A Case Study of Tianbeizigou, Hanyuan County

    • 摘要: 【研究目的】为了探究泥石流对砌体结构建筑物的破坏影响,【研究方法】以四川省汉源县田杯子沟泥石流为研究对象,首先采用Massflow数值仿真方法,构建泥石流运动动力学模型,推演出不同降雨重现周期(10年、20年、50年、100年)下泥石流流深、流速,并对田杯子沟流域进行危险性区划。接着分别考虑泥石流对建筑物的冲击和淤埋作用,构建了适用于双层砌体结构的精准化易损性模型。最后形成一套耦合泥石流动力过程与建筑易损性模型的定量化风险性评价方法。【研究结果】研究结果表明:(1)在4种不同降雨重现期下,泥石流最大流速分别为9 m/s、8 m/s、6.5 m/s、6 m/s,最大泥深分别为7.6 m、7 m、6.4 m、6 m;(2)从10年一遇到100年一遇降雨重现期下,受到泥石流影响的建筑物从10栋增加至了19栋;(3)对比10年一遇与100一遇降雨重现周期下,风险区总面积从8.62×104 m²增长至13.08×104 m²,增幅为51.71%。【结论】研究结果可为西南山区泥石流防灾减灾提供理论指导和科学支撑。

       

      Abstract: ObjectiveTO INVESTIGATE THE DESTRUCTIVE EFFECTS OF DEBRIS FLOWS ON MASONRY STRUCTURES, MethodsTHE TIANBEIGOU DEBRIS FLOW IN HANYUAN COUNTY, SICHUAN PROVINCE, WAS SELECTED AS THE STUDY SUBJECT. FIRST, THE MASSFLOW NUMERICAL SIMULATION METHOD WAS EMPLOYED TO CONSTRUCT A SEDIMENT FLOW DYNAMICS MODEL. THIS MODEL DERIVED FLOW DEPTH AND VELOCITY FOR DIFFERENT RAINFALL RECURRENCE INTERVALS (10-YEAR, 20-YEAR, 50-YEAR, 100-YEAR) AND DELINEATED HAZARD ZONES WITHIN THE TIANBEIZI GULLY WATERSHED. SUBSEQUENTLY, CONSIDERING BOTH THE IMPACT AND BURIAL EFFECTS OF DEBRIS FLOWS ON STRUCTURES, A PRECISE VULNERABILITY MODEL APPLICABLE TO DOUBLE-LAYER MASONRY STRUCTURES WAS DEVELOPED. FINALLY, A QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT METHOD COUPLING DEBRIS FLOW DYNAMICS WITH STRUCTURAL VULNERABILITY MODELING WAS ESTABLISHED. ResultsTHE RESEARCH FINDINGS INDICATE: (1) UNDER FOUR DIFFERENT RAINFALL RECURRENCE INTERVALS, THE MAXIMUM DEBRIS FLOW VELOCITIES WERE 9 M/S, 8 M/S, 6.5 M/S, AND 6 M/S, RESPECTIVELY, WITH MAXIMUM SEDIMENT DEPTHS OF 7.6 M, 7 M, 6.4 M, AND 6 M; (2) THE NUMBER OF BUILDINGS AFFECTED BY DEBRIS FLOWS INCREASED FROM 10 TO 19 AS RAINFALL RECURRENCE INTERVALS INCREASED FROM 10-YEAR TO 100-YEAR EVENTS; (3) COMPARING THE 10-YEAR AND 100-YEAR RAINFALL RECURRENCE PERIODS, THE TOTAL AREA OF THE RISK ZONE INCREASED FROM 8.62×104 M2 TO 13.08×104 M2, REPRESENTING A 51.71% INCREASE. ConclusionsTHESE FINDINGS PROVIDE THEORETICAL GUIDANCE AND SCIENTIFIC SUPPORT FOR DEBRIS FLOW DISASTER PREVENTION AND MITIGATION IN THE MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF SOUTHWEST CHINA.

       

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