基于动力学过程的泥石流对建筑物易损性评估-以四川省汉源县赵院子沟为例

    Evaluation of Building Vulnerability by Debris Flow Based on Dynamic Process: A Case Study of Zhao Yuanzigou, Hanyuan County, Sichuan Province

    • 摘要: 【研究目的】为了探明西南山区建筑物在泥石流威胁下的精细化易损模型,【研究方法】本研究以四川省汉源县赵院子沟为研究区,建立基于泥石流动力过程的数值模型,并运用Massflow数值仿真方法,对不同降雨频率下的泥石流进行危险性评价,构建了砌体结构建筑物易损性模型,最后形成一套基于灾害动力过程的泥石流定量化风险性评估方法。【研究结果】主要得出以下结论:(1)泥石流在4种不同降雨频率下的最大流速分别为10.3 m/s、11.3 m/s、12.1 m/s、12.5 m/s,最大泥深为9 m、13 m、14 m、15 m;(2)P=2%时,极高、高风险区面积分别为0.05×10⁴ m²、0.8×10⁴ m²,影响建筑物5座和2座;P=1%时,极高、高风险区面积进一步增至0.11×10⁴ m²、1.2×10⁴ m²,影响建筑物6座和5座;(3)在P=2%,P=1%降雨频率下,该聚居区已完全被泥石流所覆盖,形成中高风险区。【结论】以上研究结果可为西南山区泥石流风险精准防控提供可靠的科学依据与实践指导。

       

      Abstract: ObjectiveTo explore the refined vulnerability model of buildings in the mountainous areas of Southwest China under the threat of debris flow, Methodsthis study takes Zhao Yuanzigou in Hanyuan County, Sichuan Province as the research area, establishes a numerical model based on the dynamic process of debris flow, and uses the Massflow numerical simulation method to evaluate the risk of debris flow under different rainfall frequencies, and constructs the vulnerability model of masonry structure buildings, Finally, a set of quantitative risk assessment methods for debris flows based on the dynamic process of disasters was formed. ResultsThe following main conclusions are drawn: (1) The maximum flow velocities of debris flows under four different rainfall frequencies are 10.3 m/s, 11.3 m/s, 12.1 m/s, and 12.5 m/s respectively, and the maximum mud depths are 9 m, 13 m, 14 m, and 15 m; (2) When P=2%, the areas of extremely high and high-risk zones are 0.05×104 m2 and 0.8×104 m2 respectively, affecting 5 and 2 buildings. When P=1%, the area of extremely high and high-risk zones further increased to 0.11×104 m2 and 1.2×104 m2, affecting 6 and 5 buildings respectively. (3) Under the rainfall frequency of P=2% and P=1%, this settlement area has been completely covered by debris flows, forming a medium and high-risk area.ConclusionsThe above research results can provide reliable scientific basis and practical guidance for the precise prevention and control of debris flow risks in mountainous areas of Southwest China.

       

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