极端降水影响下的区域滑坡易发性评价:以榆林市为例

    • 摘要: 【研究目的】区域滑坡易发性评价是制定防灾减灾政策的重要科学依据,对保障人民生命财产安全具有关键意义。传统评价体系难以有效量化极端降水对滑坡的影响,本文以陕西省榆林市为研究区,旨在构建融合极端降水指数的新型耦合模型,以提升滑坡易发性评价的准确性与实用性。【研究方法】创新性地引入极端降水指数(Precipitation Indices,EPIs),通过信息量模型(Information Value, ​​IV​​)分别与随机森林(RF)、类别提升(CatBoost)及支持向量机(SVM)三种机器学习算法进行耦合,建立了EPIs-IV-RF、EPIs-IV-CatBoost和EPIs-IV-SVM三组评价模型,系统开展了滑坡易发性评价。【研究结果】EPIs-IV-CatBoost模型的空间分区结果更为合理,其中极高与高易发区集中分布于榆林市东南部黄土丘陵区,面积占比分别为4.58%和14.33%;引入EPIs显著提高了模型精度,尤其以EPIs-IV-CatBoost模型表现最佳(AUC = 0.937);SHAP分析显示,极端降水指数与坡度位居影响因子重要性前列,是控制该区域滑坡发育的关键因素。【结论】本研究构建的EPIs-IV-CatBoost耦合模型分区合理、精度高,为极端降水场景下的区域防灾减灾规划的制定提供了可靠的量化工具与科学依据。

       

      Abstract: Objective Regional landslide susceptibility assessment serves as a critical scientific basis for formulating disaster prevention and mitigation policies, playing a key role in safeguarding lives and property. Traditional evaluation systems often struggle to effectively quantify the impact of extreme precipitation on landslides. This study, taking Yulin City, Shaanxi Province as the study area, aims to develop novel coupled models that integrate extreme precipitation indices to enhance the accuracy and practicality of landslide susceptibility assessment. Methods We innovatively introduced Extreme Precipitation Indices (EPIs) and coupled them with three machine learning algorithms—Random Forest (RF), Categorical Boosting (CatBoost), and Support Vector Machine (SVM)—using the Information Value (IV) model. This led to the construction of three integrated models: EPIs-IV-RF, EPIs-IV-CatBoost, and EPIs-IV-SVM, through which a systematic landslide susceptibility assessment was conducted. Results The EPIs-IV-CatBoost model yielded more rational spatial zonation, with very high and high susceptibility areas concentrated in the loess hilly region of southeastern Yulin, accounting for 4.58% and 14.33% of the total area, respectively;The incorporation of EPIs significantly improved model accuracy, with the EPIs-IV-CatBoost model performing the best (AUC = 0.937); SHAP analysis revealed that extreme precipitation indices and slope are among the most important influencing factors, playing a critical role in landslide development in the region. Conclusions The EPIs-IV-CatBoost coupled model developed in this study demonstrates reasonable zonation and high accuracy, providing a reliable quantitative tool and scientific support for regional disaster prevention and mitigation planning under extreme precipitation scenarios.

       

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