基于混合迁移学习的川渝输气管道滑坡易发性研究

    Landslide susceptibility assessment for gas transmission pipelines in the sichuan–chongqing region based on hybrid transfer learning

    • 摘要: 滑坡虽然不是管道失效的最主要因素,但是却造成了最多的管道断裂和燃爆。本研究针对川渝输气管道在滑坡多发区的风险防控需求,提出了一种基于混合迁移学习的易发性预测框架,并附代码及说明。研究选取西南油气田巡线查明的管道滑坡为源域数据,并采集坡向、土地利用、坡度、植被覆盖(NDVI)、地层岩性、断层距离、地震加速度等关键影响因子,作为迁移学习的输入特征。框架中应用支持向量机(SVM)、孤立森林(IF)、局部异常因子(LOF)及高斯混合模型(GMM)算法,通过源域与目标域的因子迁移训练,优化模型参数并提升预测的泛化能力。结果显示,川渝地区输气管道滑坡主要分布在坡向东南、坡度约10°、中等植被覆盖(NDVI≈0.58)、60分钟最大降水量约40 mm、以砂岩和粘土为主的地层、距断层10 km内及地震加速度较高(0.05 g)等环境条件下。基于迁移学习生成的风险分布图揭示川东管线风险尤为显著,且4种算法在空间分布趋势上保持高度一致,为管道风险管理提供了可靠依据。综上,本研究创新性地将混合迁移学习应用于管道滑坡易发性评估,不仅有效缓解了数据稀缺及负样本选择不确定性带来的误差,还显著提高了预测精度和模型鲁棒性,为定点巡检与风险防控策略制定提供了坚实的决策支持。

       

      Abstract: In order to improve landslide susceptibility assessment for gas transmission pipelines in the Sichuan–Chongqing region, a hybrid transfer learning framework was developed to investigate pipeline-related landslide risks in data-scarce mountainous areas. Verified landslide records from pipeline patrols in the Southwest Oil & Gas Field were used as source domain data, while key environmental variables—such as slope aspect, land use, slope gradient, NDVI, lithology, distance to faults, and seismic acceleration—served as input features. Four machine learning algorithms, including Support Vector Machine (SVM), Isolation Forest (IF), Local Outlier Factor (LOF), and Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), were integrated through transfer learning to enhance prediction generalization across different regions. The results show that pipeline landslides are mainly associated with southeast-facing slopes, moderate gradients (~10°), NDVI around 0.58, sandstone- and clay-dominated strata, proximity within 10 km of faults, 60-minute rainfall of about 40 mm, and seismic acceleration near 0.05 g. The susceptibility maps generated by the four models exhibit strong spatial consistency and highlight elevated landslide risk along pipelines in eastern Sichuan. It is concluded that the proposed hybrid transfer learning framework effectively addresses data limitations and negative sample uncertainty, providing accurate and robust susceptibility predictions and offering practical decision support for targeted inspection and hazard mitigation of pipeline infrastructure.

       

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