中国地质灾害防治的学术思考

    Academic introspections on geological hazard prevention and mitigation in China

    • 摘要:
      研究目的 经过近40年的努力,中国“以人为本”的地质灾害防治工作取得显著成效,但长期以来,学术界较重视地质灾害的动力成因及运动特征研究,追求“智能技术方法”而忽视减灾应用检验的“自闭式”研究,导致学术成果“通货膨胀”,以及对问题的科学认识深度并没有同步深化。
      研究方法 将中国地质灾害认知防治历史划分为古代蒙昧认知、外动力地质作用、工程地质问题、地质灾害问题和地质灾害防治5个阶段。
      研究结果 陈述了地质灾害的基本属性和成因危害特性,前者包括自然属性、社会属性和资源属性,后者包括成因机理、空间分布、时间演化、危害强度特性等,认为地质灾害是可认识、可防治的。通过反思重大地质灾害防治教训,指出了科技支撑方面存在的问题。针对科学、技术和防治3个维度的问题,提出了地质灾害科学认识论、技术方法论和防治对策论。认识论包括成因论与危害论,成因论考虑地质灾害的必然性、复杂性、随机性、迭加性和演化性,危害论研判地质灾害的缓变性、突发性、累进性、摧毁性、关联性和远程性。方法论包括勘测技术方法的整体论与分割论,整体论寻求系统全面考量评价问题的方法,分割论研究解剖关键环节本质问题的有效方法。对策论包括法规论与工程论,法规论是地质灾害防治工作的依据,工程论突出防治的实际效果评价。
      结论 为了提升科技支撑管理决策能力和专业人员的职业敏感性,认为地质灾害防治的基本理念是注重原型研究,技术路线是关注易发区、紧盯风险点和研判防控灾害链。

       

      Abstract:
      Objective Over the past 40 years, China has made major progress in geological disaster prevention with a strong focus on protecting people. However, academic research has mainly concentrated on disaster mechanisms and movement processes. Many studies are also attracted by the surface appeal of so−called intelligent technologies. Practical applications and field validation are often overlooked. As a result, academic outputs have increased rapidly, but real improvements in scientific understanding and disaster reduction effectiveness remain limited.
      Methods The author divides the historical development of China's understanding and prevention of geological disasters into five stages: primitive cognition in ancient times, recognition of exogenic geological processes, awareness of engineering geological issues, identification of geological disaster problems, and the stage of geological disaster prevention and control.
      Results The article outlines the fundamental attributes and causative−hazard characteristics of geological disasters. The former includes natural, social, and resource−related attributes, while the latter encompasses causative mechanisms, spatial distribution, temporal evolution, and hazard intensity characteristics. It asserts that geological disasters are both understandable and controllable. By reflecting on lessons learned from major geological disaster prevention and control efforts, the article highlights existing problems in scientific and technological support. In response to issues across the dimensions of science, technology, and disaster prevention, the author proposes a three−pronged framework: the epistemology of geological disasters, the methodology of technologies, and the theory of preventive strategies. The epistemology consists of the theory of causation and the theory of hazard. The theory of causation considers the inevitability, complexity, randomness, superposition, and evolutionary nature of geological disasters, while the theory of hazard evaluates their gradual onset, suddenness, progression, destructiveness, interconnectivity, and long−range impact. The methodology includes both a holistic approach and a segmented approach to survey and assessment techniques. The holistic approach seeks comprehensive and systematic evaluation methods, while the segmented approach focuses on dissecting and understanding the essential nature of critical components. The theory of preventive strategies includes legal and engineering dimensions. The legal aspect provides the foundational basis for geological disaster prevention and control, while the engineering aspect emphasizes the practical evaluation of prevention and mitigation effectiveness.
      Conclusions In order to enhance the capacity of scientific and technological support for decision−making and improve the professional sensitivity of specialists, it is proposed that the fundamental concept of geological disaster prevention and control should emphasize prototype−based research. The recommended technical approach focuses on identifying susceptible zones, closely monitoring high−risk points, and assessing and managing potential disaster chains.

       

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