怒江流域察瓦龙―贡山段斜坡地质灾害发育特征及影响因素敏感性分析

    Development characteristics and sensitivity analysis of impact factors of slope geohazards in Chawalong–Gongshan section of Nujiang River basin

    • 摘要: 怒江流域察瓦龙―贡山段地处青藏高原东南三江并流区,区内地质环境脆弱,地质灾害频发。为了摸清灾害底数、防控地质安全风险,首先,基于遥感解译结合现场调查,在研究区内共识别出斜坡地质灾害(崩塌、滑坡、变形体)803处,分析了灾害的数量、规模、宏观分布和破坏类型等主要发育特征;在此基础上,选取高程、坡度、坡向、岩组、距断层距离和距水系距离等6个影响因子,利用GIS空间分析、确定性系数模型(CF)和敏感性指数方法(E)对影响因子进行了敏感性研究,结果表明:高程小于3000 m,坡度20°~40°,坡向NE、E、S、SW、W,碳酸盐岩岩组、砂板岩与片岩岩组、千枚岩岩组,距断层小于2 km以及距水系小于600 m为灾害易发区间;其中,高程1500~2000 m,坡度30°~40°,坡向NE,千枚岩岩组,距断层小于1 km以及距水系小于200 m为灾害最易发区间;各因子对灾害的影响程度排序为:高程>岩组>坡向>距水系距离>坡度>距断层距离,其中前5个因子的敏感性指数超过1,是灾害的主控因素。本文研究结果可以为怒江流域的防灾减灾提供科学依据。

       

      Abstract: The Chawalong–Gongshan section of Nujiang River basin is located in the three parallel rivers area in the southeast of Tibetan Plateau. The geo-environment in this area is fragile and geological hazards occurred frequently. In order to find out the background number of hazards and control geological safety risks, firstly, 803 slope geohazards (including rockfall, landslide and deformed mass) were recognized in the study area based on remote sensing interpretation and field investigation, and the main development characteristics of the hazards such as quantity, scale, spatial distribution and failure types were analyzed. On this basis, GIS spatial analysis, Certainty Factor model (CF) and Sensitivity Index method (E) were used jointly to study the sensitivity of the six influencing factors (elevation, slope, aspect, rock group, distance to fault and distance to water system) to hazards. The results showed that elevation below 3000 m, slope of 20°–40°, aspect in NE, E, S, SW, W, carbonate rock group, sandstone slate and schist group, phyllite group, distance less than 2 km from fault and distance less than 600 m from water system were the zones that hazards prone to occur. Furtherly, elevation ranged from 1500 to 2000 m, slope of 30°–40°, aspect in NE, phyllite group, distance less than 1 km from fault and distance less than 200 m from water system were the zones that hazards most prone to occur. The order of influence degree of each factor on the hazards was as follows: elevation, rock group, aspect, distance to water system, slope, distance to fault. The first five factors were deemed as main controlling factors for the hazards since their sensitivity index were all more than one. The research results in this paper could provide scientific basis for hazard prevention and mitigation of Nujiang River basin.

       

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