基于生态系统服务多情景权衡的长三角优先保护区研究

    Study on Priority Conservation Areas in the Yangtze River Delta Based on Multi-Scenario Trade-offs of Ecosystem Services

    • 摘要: 【研究目的】长三角地区生态系统服务的时空演化特征及优先保护区研究,对于缓解区域经济发展与生态保护冲突、实现可持续发展具有重要意义。【研究方法】采用NDVI配比法、InVEST模型、景观指标等方法测算了长三角地区粮食供给(FP)、产水量(WY)、碳储量(CS)、土壤保持(SC)、生境质量(HQ)和景观美学(LA)六项关键生态系统服务。通过Spearman相关性分析评估生态系统服务之间的权衡/协同关系,并引入生态系统服务协同获益指数(ESSB)揭示其空间异质性。基于有序加权平均法(OWA)建立了7种情景,通过比较不同情景下的保护效率和权衡值,确定最优情景。采用最优参数地理探测器模型分析影响优先保护区分布的主要影响因素。【研究结果】(1)长三角地区生态系统服务空间分布不均,FP高值分布于北部平原,其余五项服务的高值集中于西南山地丘陵。2000–2020年FP和WY持续增长,SC和LA先降后升,CS和HQ持续下降;(2)FP与其他生态系统服务之间存在权衡关系,而WY、CS、SC、HQ、LA内部之间存在协同关系;(3)情景4对FP、WY、CS、SC、HQ、LA的保护效率分别为0.32、1.37、1.87、1.84、1.84、1.37,综合保护效率最高被确定为最优情景;(4)影响优先保护区分布的主要因素包括坡度、年均气温、年均降水和DEM等自然禀赋因素,这些因素的解释能力明显高于社会经济因子。【结论】研究结果可为长三角地区的生态系统服务优化调控和优先保护区的科学划定提供决策支持。

       

      Abstract: Objective The study on the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of ecosystem services and priority conservation areas in the Yangtze River Delta region is of great significance for mitigating conflicts between regional economic development and ecological protection and achieving sustainable development. Methods Six key ecosystem services—food supply (FP), water yield (WY), carbon storage (CS), soil conservation (SC), habitat quality (HQ), and landscape aesthetics (LA)—were measured using the NDVI matching method, InVEST model, and landscape indicators. The trade-off/synergy relationships among these services were assessed using Spearman correlation analysis, and an ecosystem service synergistic benefit index (ESSB) was introduced to reveal their spatial heterogeneity. Seven scenarios were established based on the ordered weighted average method (OWA), and the optimal scenario was determined by comparing conservation efficiencies and trade-off values across different scenarios. The optimal parameter geodetector model was employed to analyze the main influencing factors affecting the distribution of priority protected areas. Results (1) The spatial distribution of ecosystem services in the YRD region is uneven, with FP values highest in the northern plains and the remaining five services peaking in the southwestern mountainous hills. From 2000 to 2020, FP and WY showed continuous growth, while SC and LA experienced a decline followed by recovery, and CS and HQ exhibited a continuous downward trend. (2) FP exhibits a trade-off relationship with other ecosystem services, whereas WY, CS, SC, HQ, and LA display synergistic relationships among themselves. (3) Scenario 4 presents the highest combined conservation efficiency, with respective efficiencies of 0.32 (FP), 1.37 (WY), 1.87 (CS), 1.84 (SC), 1.84 (HQ), and 1.37 (LA). (4) The primary factors influencing the distribution of priority conservation areas are natural endowment factors, including slope, mean annual temperature, mean annual precipitation, and DEM, which show significantly higher explanatory power than socioeconomic factors. Conclusion The findings of this study can provide decision-making support for the optimal regulation of ecosystem services and the scientific delineation of priority conservation areas in the YRD region.

       

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