This paper presents the results of research on the spatial and temporal evolution and prediction of land use change and carbon stocks.

Objective Land use/cover change (LUCC) is an important cause affecting carbon stock in terrestrial ecosystems, and in−depth investigation of the relationship between LUCC and carbon stock is of great significance in promoting regional scientific planning of territorial space and facilitating the enhancement of ecosystem carbon stock. This paper combines the PLUS and InVEST models to simulate the relationship between LUCC and carbon stock in a county as a study area.

Methods In this study, based on the land use data from 2000 to 2020 in Eryuan County, Dali Prefecture, 15 driving factors were selected, and the PLUS and InVEST models were combined to simulate the changes of LUCC and carbon stock in the study area under the scenarios of natural development (S1), ecologically−prioritized development (S2), socio−economic development (S3), and urban−rural development (S4) for the years 2035 and 2040, respectively. LUCC and carbon stock changes were analyzed.

Results ①Forest land is the most important carbon pool in the study area. carbon stock showed a general upward trend between 2000 and 2020, and the total carbon stock increased by 0.8×10⁵ t. ②Carbon stock increased in 2020−2035 under the S1 and S2 scenarios, respectively by 0.28×10⁵ t and 0.42×10⁵ t, and decreased under the S3 and S4 scenarios, decreasing by 0.43×10⁵ t and 0.17×10⁵ t, respectively; ③Carbon stock increased under the S1, S2 and S4 scenarios in 2020−2040, rising by 1.26×10⁵ t, 0.33×10⁵ t, and 0.16×10⁵ t, respectively, while the S3 scenario decreased by 0.09×10⁵ t; ④Changes in the area of forested and built−up land were the main reasons for the changes in carbon stock in the study area. The more densely populated Common Gromwell Town, where the county town is located, and the encroachment and expansion of construction land on the neighboring forest land and other land led to frequent changes of carbon stock in the area; ⑤Under both scenarios S2 and S4, the carbon stock in the study area showed an upward trend of different degrees. Among them, under the S2 scenario, due to the implementation of the ecological priority policy, the area of forest land and other high carbon sinks in the region increases significantly, and the upward trend of carbon stock is more obvious; whereas under the S4 scenario, even though the increase in carbon stock is lower than that of the S2 scenario, it achieves a better balance between regional economic development and ecological protection, and is more in line with the needs of the actual development of the society.

Conclusions In the future spatial planning process of land use, it is necessary to coordinate the relationship between the policies of ecological protection, arable land protection and urban−rural development, optimize the land use structure, and prevent the destruction of the regional ecological environment due to economic development, which will lead to the reduction of the area of land with high carbon sinks and trigger the decline of the total carbon stock in the region.