Objective By studying the spatial and temporal succession pattern and development trend of ecosystem carbon storage driven by land use change in the ecological conservation area in the west of Beijing from 1990 to 2020, this study found out the distribution of regional carbon storage and its influencing factors, and combined with the strategic demand of "dual carbon" in Beijing, proposed ways to improve the carbon sink capacity of regional ecosystem. It provides reference for ecological conservation area to support the realization of carbon neutrality goal of the capital.

Methods Seven periods of remote sensing data from 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020 were selected to evaluate the temporal and spatial changes of carbon storage in the study area using InVEST model. Based on the historical land use change, the PLUS model was used to predict and analyze the changes of land use and carbon storage potential under different scenarios in 2030.

Results ① From 1990 to 2020, the carbon storage in the study area showed a fluctuating downward trend, with a cumulative decrease of 5.3×10⁶ t. The change of land use type, especially the change of cultivated land to construction land, is the main reason for the change of carbon storage in the study area in the past 30 years. ② The spatial variation of ecosystem carbon storage in the western part of Beijing was mainly affected by elevation and vegetation coverage. In addition, climate factors such as annual precipitation and average annual temperature also affect the spatial distribution of carbon stocks to varying degrees. It is found that the synergistic effect of each driving factor is generally stronger than that of single factor, especially the synergistic effect of elevation and vegetation coverage on the spatial differentiation of carbon stocks is the most significant.③ In the simulation of natural development scenario, cultivated land protection scenario and ecological protection scenario in 2030, carbon storage reached 106.02×10⁶ t, 105.82×10⁶ t and 106.08×10⁶ t, respectively, all higher than that in 2020. In the long run, ecological protection scenarios can not only effectively increase carbon stocks, but also bring benefits of biodiversity conservation and ecosystem service enhancement.

Conclusions In order to improve the carbon sink capacity of the ecological conservation area in the west of the capital, improve the ecological compensation policy, increase the protection investment, and continue to carry out the construction of landscape engineering and small watershed comprehensive management. Combined with the control of land use, it is necessary to strictly curb the disorderly expansion of construction land and optimize and adjust the "three life" space.