摘要:
【目的】本研究通过对首都西部生态涵养区1990年至2020年土地利用变化驱动下生态系统碳储量时空演替格局及发展趋势进行研究，摸清区域碳储量分布状况及影响因素，结合北京市“双碳”战略需求，提出区域生态系统碳汇能力提升途径，为生态涵养区支撑首都碳中和目标实现提供参考。【方法】选取1990、1995、2000、2005、2010、2015和2020年共7期的遥感数据，运用InVEST模型，评估了研究区碳储量时空变化。基于历史土地利用变化采用PLUS模型预测分析了2030年不同情景下的土地利用及碳储量潜力变化。【结果】①1990~2020年，首都西部生态涵养区土地利用类型中耕地和草地面积持续减少。耕地尤为明显，主要转变为建设用地，分布在房山区西部。②2020年首都西部生态涵养区碳储量达105.7×106t，林地是碳储量的主要贡献来源，与1990年相比，碳储量减少5.3×106t。在空间上，高碳储量区位于门头沟区和房山区西部；低碳储量区分布在耕地和建设用地上，主要位于房山区东部。③2020~2030年，首都西部生态涵养区碳储量在生态保护情境下增长了0.38×106t，耕地保护情景下增长了0.12×106t，自然发展情景下增长了0.32×106t。在生态保护情境下林地、耕地、草地构成研究区主要碳库，建设用地扩张是阻碍碳储量增长的因素之一。【结论】为提升首都西部生态涵养区碳汇能力，需完善生态补偿政策，加大保护投入，持续开展山水工程、小流域综合治理等建设；结合国土空间用途管控，严格遏制建设用地无序扩张，优化调整“三生”空间。
Abstract:
[Objective] By studying the spatial and temporal succession pattern and development trend of ecosystem carbon storage driven by land use change in the ecological conservation area in the west of Beijing from 1990 to 2020, this study found out the distribution of regional carbon storage and its influencing factors, and combined with the strategic demand of "dual carbon" in Beijing, proposed ways to improve the carbon sink capacity of regional ecosystem. It provides reference for ecological conservation area to support the realization of carbon neutrality goal of the capital. [Methods] Seven periods of remote sensing data from 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020 were selected to evaluate the temporal and spatial changes of carbon storage in the study area using InVEST model. Based on the historical land use change, the PLUS model was used to predict and analyze the changes of land use and carbon storage potential under different scenarios in 2030. [Results] (1) From 1990 to 2020, the land use types of cultivated land and grassland in the western ecological conservation area of the capital continued to decrease. The cultivated land is especially obvious, which is mainly transformed into construction land and distributed in the west of Fangshan District. (2) Carbon reserves in the ecological conservation area in the west of the capital will reach 105.7×106t in 2020, and forest land will be the main contributor of carbon reserves, which will decrease by 5.3×106t compared with 1990. In terms of space, the high carbon storage area is located in Mentougou District and the west of Fangshan District. The low carbon storage area is distributed in cultivated land and construction land, mainly located in the east of Fangshan District. (3) From 2020 to 2030, the carbon storage of ecological conservation area in the west of the capital increased by 0.38×106t under ecological protection scenario, 0.12×106t under cultivated land protection scenario, and 0.32×106t under natural development scenario. In the context of ecological protection, forest land, cultivated land and grassland constitute the main carbon pool in the study area, and the expansion of construction land is one of the factors that hinder the increase of carbon storage. [Conclusion] In order to improve the carbon sink capacity of the ecological conservation area in the west of the capital, it is necessary to improve the ecological compensation policy, increase the investment in protection, and continue to carry out the construction of landscape engineering and small watershed comprehensive management. In combination with the control of land use, we will strictly curb the disorderly expansion of construction land and optimize and adjust the "three life" space.
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