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    黑河流域上游2000—2020年产水量时空演变及气候与人为因素分析

    Spatial and temporal evolution and drivers of water production in the upper reaches of the Heihe River

      摘要
    • 摘要:
      研究目的 黑河流域上游是整个流域的主要产流区，本文揭示该区域产水量的时空特征和变化响应，为流域水资源开发利用与管理提供科学依据。
      研究方法 利用InVEST模型产水量模块，采用地理探测器和情景分析法，评估黑河流域上游2000年、2005年、2010年、2015年和2020年的产水量，研究过去20年间产水量的变化趋势，并探讨这些变化与气候及土地利用变化之间的关系。
      研究结果 结果显示，从空间分布看，2000—2005年西北部和中地区是产水量较低，其他区域产水量较高，2010—2020年呈现东南高、西北低的格局。2000年、2005年、2010年、2015年和2020年黑河上游的产水量分别为37.78×108 m3、35.74×108 m3、44.28×108 m3、49.80×108 m3、45.80×108 m3，产水量总体呈上升趋势，且上升幅度较大。地理探测器的分析结果显示，对于产水量来说，各因素之间的相互作用比单一因素的解释效果更显著，年蒸散发（0.5162）、年均气温（0.4522）、年降水量（0.3383）因子的解释力均超过30%，气候因素之间的相互作用对产水量空间差异的解释力最突出，表明气候是主导产水量分布差异的关键因素，一定程度上主导了黑河流域上游产水量空间分异的变化。
      结论 2000—2020年，黑河流域上游降水量变化对产水量的影响大，土地利用变化对产水量的影响较小。

       

      Abstract:
      Objective The upper reaches of the Heihe River Basin constitute the primary water−generating area of the entire basin. This study aims to reveal the spatiotemporal characteristics and response patterns of water yield in this region, providing scientific basis for water resource development, utilization, and management in the basin.
      Methods Utilizing the InVEST model's water yield module, geographic detector and scenario analysis methods were employed to assess water yield in the upper Heihe River Basin for the years 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020. This study examined water yield trends over the past two decades and explored the relationship between these changes and shifts in climate and land use.
      Results Spatially, the northwest and central regions exhibited lower water yield between 2000 and 2005, while other areas showed higher yields. From 2010 to 2020, a pattern emerged with higher yields in the southeast and lower yields in the northwest. Water yields in the upper Heihe River basin in 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020, the water yield in the upper reaches of the Heihe River was 37.78×108 m3, 35.74×108 m3, 44.28×108 m3, 49.80×108 m3, and 45.80×108 m3, respectively, showing an overall upward trend with a significant increase. Analysis results from the Geographic Detector indicate that interactions among factors explain precipitation more effectively than individual factors alone. The explanatory power of annual evapotranspiration (0.5162), annual mean temperature (0.4522), and annual precipitation (0.3383) each contributed over 30% to the explanation. The interaction among climatic factors most prominently explained spatial variations in water yield, indicating that climate is the dominant factor governing its distribution. To a significant extent, climate drives the spatial differentiation of water yield in the upper Heihe River Basin.
      Conclusions From 2000 to 2020, precipitation changes in the upper Heihe River basin exerted a significant influence on water yield, while land use changes had a relatively minor impact.

       

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