基于证据权和随机森林的山东微山稀土矿三维成矿预测

    Evidence right and random forest based 3D metallogenic prediction of Weishan REE deposit in Shandong Province

    • 摘要:
      研究目的 三维矿产资源潜力评价是深部成矿预测的重要手段。近年来,随着机器学习算法的融入,三维矿产资源潜力评价的精准度大幅提高,为矿产资源勘查做出了突出贡献。山东微山稀土矿当前开采标高约−200 m,深部资源接续面临挑战。本文旨在厘清控矿要素、建立定量预测模型,并圈定找矿靶区。
      研究方法 利用三维地质建模技术刻画矿体、岩体及构造的空间展布形态,定量提取了岩体、构造、地球化学等有利成矿要素,并运用证据权法和随机森林法进行成矿预测和对比研究。
      研究结果 运用证据权法分析各类地质要素与成矿作用的相关性并计算证据权重。在此基础上,建立随机森林模型,进行深部成矿预测。结合区域成矿背景,圈定了2处找矿靶区。
      结论 本次建立的“三维建模-证据权-随机森林”综合预测方法可有效提升深部矿产预测的精度,结果表明微山稀土矿深部仍具良好的找矿潜力,所圈定的靶区为后续勘查提供了明确方向。

       

      Abstract:
      Objective 3D mineral resource potential evaluation serves as a vital tool for deep mineral exploration. In recent years, the integration of machine learning algorithms has significantly improved the accuracy of such 3D mineral resource potential evaluation, contributing substantially to advances in mineral exploration. The current mining elevation of the Weishan rare earth element (REE) deposit in Shandong is approximately −200 m, and the continuation of deep resources is facing challenges. This study aims to delineate the ore−controlling factors, develop a quantitative predictive model, and identify potential exploration targets.
      Methods 3D geological modeling was constructed to delineate the spatial distribution of ore bodies, lithological units, and structural features. Key geological factors, including lithology, structure, and geochemical signatures, were quantitatively derived from the models. Mineralization prospectivity was then evaluated and compared using the weight−of−evidence (WoE) and random forest (RF) methods.
      Results The WoE was applied to assess the relationships between geological factors and mineralization, followed by the calculation of corresponding weight values. Subsequently, a random forest (RF) model was constructed based on these weighted factors for deep mineral potential prediction. Integrated with the regional metallogenic framework, two prospective exploration targets were delineated.
      Conclusions The integrated “3D modeling–weights of evidence–random forest” approach developed in this study provides an effective framework for enhancing the accuracy of deep mineral exploration. The results demonstrate that the Weishan REE deposit exhibits promising exploration potential at depth, and the delineated target areas offer practical guidance for further exploration.

       

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