Abstract:
Evaluation of geologic disaster susceptibility is an important tool for prediction and early warning in geologic disaster frequent areas. Changyang County is located in the south of West Hubei Province and the middle and lower reaches of Qingjiang River, where geologic hazards are frequent. In this paper, 13 disaster-causing factors such as elevation, slope and undulation are extracted from four aspects: topography and geomorphology, geological environment, hydrological environment, and human activities, and the I-ABC-LightGBM prediction model is constructed by using the informative model (I) coupled with the lightweight gradient lifting machine model (LightGBM), and ABC algorithm is applied to optimize the parameters of the coupled model, in order to evaluate the vulnerability of geologic hazards in Changyang County. The evaluation results show that The evaluation results show that: ①, the prediction accuracy of the I-ABC-LightGBM model is high, and the prediction accuracy value AUC is 0.882, which is better than that of the I model (0.824) and the I-LightGBM model (0.851); ②, the extremely high susceptibility area and the high susceptibility area of the geologic hazards in Changyang County accounted for 32.37% of the total area of Changyang County, the medium susceptibility area accounted for 17.75%, the low susceptibility area The medium-prone area accounts for 22.58%, low-prone area accounts for 27.30%; ③, the very high and high prone areas are mainly in the middle and southwestern part of the Qingjiang River system along the coast and in the northern part of the Yichang-Wanzhou Railway and along the Hurong-West Expressway. This paper has methodological significance and typical examples of reference significance for similar geologic disaster early warning, prevention and control, and land planning work.