基于I-ABC-LightGBM耦合模型的长阳县地质灾害易发性评价

    • 摘要: 地质灾害易发性评价是地质灾害频发区预测预警的重要手段。长阳县地处鄂西南、清江中下游,地质灾害频发。本文从地形地貌、地质环境、水文环境、人类活动四方面提取高程、坡度、起伏度等13个致灾因子,利用信息量模型(I)耦合轻量级梯度提升机模型(LightGBM),运用ABC算法优化耦合模型参数,构建I-ABC-LightGBM预测模型,对长阳县地质灾害易发性进行评价。评价结果表明:①、I-ABC-LightGBM模型预测精度高,预测精度值AUC为0.882,优于I模型(0.824)和I-LightGBM模型(0.851);②、长阳县地质灾害的极高易发区和高易发区占长阳县总面积的32.37%,中易发区占17.75%,低易发区占22.58%,极低易发区占27.30%;③、极高和高易发区主要为中、西南部清江水系沿岸和北部宜昌-万州铁路、沪蓉西高速公路沿线。本文对同类地质灾害预警、防治和国土规划工作具有方法借鉴意义和典型实例参考意义。

       

      Abstract: Evaluation of geologic disaster susceptibility is an important tool for prediction and early warning in geologic disaster frequent areas. Changyang County is located in the south of West Hubei Province and the middle and lower reaches of Qingjiang River, where geologic hazards are frequent. In this paper, 13 disaster-causing factors such as elevation, slope and undulation are extracted from four aspects: topography and geomorphology, geological environment, hydrological environment, and human activities, and the I-ABC-LightGBM prediction model is constructed by using the informative model (I) coupled with the lightweight gradient lifting machine model (LightGBM), and ABC algorithm is applied to optimize the parameters of the coupled model, in order to evaluate the vulnerability of geologic hazards in Changyang County. The evaluation results show that The evaluation results show that: ①, the prediction accuracy of the I-ABC-LightGBM model is high, and the prediction accuracy value AUC is 0.882, which is better than that of the I model (0.824) and the I-LightGBM model (0.851); ②, the extremely high susceptibility area and the high susceptibility area of the geologic hazards in Changyang County accounted for 32.37% of the total area of Changyang County, the medium susceptibility area accounted for 17.75%, the low susceptibility area The medium-prone area accounts for 22.58%, low-prone area accounts for 27.30%; ③, the very high and high prone areas are mainly in the middle and southwestern part of the Qingjiang River system along the coast and in the northern part of the Yichang-Wanzhou Railway and along the Hurong-West Expressway. This paper has methodological significance and typical examples of reference significance for similar geologic disaster early warning, prevention and control, and land planning work.

       

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