基于优化随机森林模型的降雨群发滑坡易发性评价以西秦岭极端降雨事件为例

    Susceptibility assessment of precipitation-induced mass landslides based on optimal random forest model: Taking the extreme precipitation event in western Qinling mountains as an example

    • 摘要: 随机森林模型(RF)是在滑坡易发性评价中广泛应用的机器学习模型之一。针对制约随机森林模型评价应用质量的难点问题,以西秦岭山区娘娘坝镇极端降雨诱发的2万余处群发滑坡为例,从滑坡−非滑坡样本筛选方法、影响因子选取、联结方法应用和超参数优化4个方面开展了模型优化及与常规模型评价的对比研究。通过区域滑坡易发性评价和有效性比较可知,2种情形评价均取得理想结果,优化随机森林评价结果AUC(精度曲线下的面积)可达0.877,对比常规评价结果更优,表明该优化方法可以明显提升随机森林模型在区域降雨滑坡评价中的效果和学习效率,可为气候变化背景下极端降雨群发滑坡灾害易发性评估提供参考。

       

      Abstract: Random forest model (RF) is one of the widely used machine learning models for landslide susceptibility assessment. Aiming at the difficult problems that restrict the application quality of random forest model assessment, taking more than 20000 extreme rainfall landslides induced by extreme rainfall in Niangniangba Town, western Qinling Mountains as an example, the model optimization and comparison with conventional model evaluation were carried out mainly from four aspects: landslide−non−landslide sample screening method, influence factor selection, coupling method application and hyper−parameter optimization. Based on the above optimization, the regional landslide susceptibility evaluation and effectiveness comparison of typical towns−Niangniangba Town are carried out. The evaluation of both situations has achieved ideal results. The optimized random forest evaluation result AUC can reach 0.877, which is better than the conventional assessment results. It shows that the optimization method can obviously improve the assessment effect and learning efficiency of random forest model in regional rainfall landslide, and can provide reference for the risk assessment of extreme rainfall landslide hazard under the background of climate change.

       

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